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Oregon Ducks vs USC Trojans Week 9 Preview

After the very first game of their 2009 season, the Oregon Ducks didn't seem to be ready to contend for the Pac-10 championship and break USC's stranglehold on conference supremacy. Yet, nine long weeks after LeGarrette Blount's punch in Boise, Idaho, the Quack Attack has made its way to the supreme stage, in a winner-take-all brawl that will define an autumn for two teams.

This Saturday, on the night of Halloween, some Californians will play dress-up and wear gold pants, white shirts, and red helmets as they walk into Autzen Stadium for a scary showdown against an Oregon team that knows how to wear many different kinds of uniforms. Yes, the fashion habits--and faux pas--of the Ducks are well known to college football observers, but the diversity of UO's on-field wardrobe lends a thematically appropriate background to this gargantuan game--the Pac-10 pigskin passion play of the year--against the big, bad colossus from Los Angeles.

Indeed, the simple question that towers over USC-Oregon, the battle for the Pac-10 title (with Arizona having a shot; the Wildcats will play the Trojans and Ducks in the final month of the season), is this: Which Oregon team will show up? Will the Ducks flap their wings in a furious show of awesome football force, or will they flail and flounder in this heavily-hyped Halloween spectacular?

The last time Oregon took the field in a pressure situation, the nation saw all too well what happened: The Ducks performed a face-plant on the smurf turf of Boise, melting down in many different ways, albeit on the offensive side of the ball. Coordinator Nick Aliotti's defense has been the backbone of coach Chip Kelly's club through the first eight weeks of the season, very much including that Sept. 3 slugfest against the BCS-busting aspirant from the Western Athletic Conference. Yet, nothing UO did defensively could compensate for the utter ineptitude of an offense that failed to get a single first down in the first half, and then drowned in turnovers as the second half progressed. On that night, UO's outlook for the remainder of 2009 appeared to be decidedly grim... and that was before Mr. Blount punched a Boise State player and became only more unhinged as he left the playing field.

As September continued, the Ducks still struggled, but they pulled close wins out of the fire against Purdue and Utah. Then, in a major moment against Cal, something important transpired: Jeremiah Masoli, the master of Kelly's multifaceted offense, rediscovered the dominance that marked his November surge in the 2008 campaign. With Masoli once again making the right reads and decisions--something that evaded the signal-calling stud in UO's first three games--the Ducks blasted Cal, 42-3, to announce their re-emergence on the national scene. With Aliotti's defense continuing to dominate, Oregon was able to overcome Masoli's right knee injury as October progressed, bringing the Ducks to this eagerly-anticipated encounter with destiny... and the mighty Men of Troy who have lorded themselves over the Pac-10 since 2003. ( Washington State won the league's Rose Bowl berth in 2002, a fact that gets overlooked by many national commentators who think of USC's Pac-10 run as a seven-year reign and not a six-year sequence.)

It's as clear as the Willamette Valley on a sun-splashed summer evening: Oregon has displayed incredible resourcefulness and resilience to reach this game with an unblemished Pac-10 record and a chance to gain unchallenged control of the race for the league title. With the longtime kings of the conference standing in their way, the Ducks must now pool their resources and bring all of them to the table in this one titanic tilt.

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USC's record in big games under coach Pete Carroll is well known. The Trojans have won three games against the AP top 25 this season, and Carroll's all-time record against top 25 teams is a sterling 35-7. USC is so familiar to the Saturday spotlight that this will be just one more date with College Gameday in town; the Trojans have their vulnerabilities--Oregon State exposed them last weekend at the L.A. Coliseum--but they won't be intimidated by an ear-splitting environment in Eugene. Oregon will need to play its best game in order to wrest the Pac-10 away from USC, and complete the changing of the guard that Ducks fans so desperately hope will happen.

This is a volatile matchup, or at least, it feels that way. Masoli and his counterpart, USC freshman Matt Barkley, have grown immeasurably as this season has continued, but Masoli's lingering health issues (he'll play, but he still wasn't at 100 percent against Washington) and Barkley's youth could produce big mistakes in a game of such magnitude. Oregon's defense has been a rock for Gang Green this season, but with injuries to cornerback Talmadge Jackson and linebacker Josh Kaddu, Nick Aliotti will have to scramble to stop USC's deep-intermediate passing game. USC must also be uncertain about its outlook heading into Halloween, because running back Joe McKnight cut his hand against Oregon State (he's probable for this game), and prolific pass-catcher Anthony McCoy, a downfield tight end in the Brent Jones-Jay Novacek mold, sprained his ankle last weekend versus the Beavers.

All in all, it's hard to know exactly what to expect from either club. A series of first-half stumbles could put either team in a huge hole and sabotage the best-laid plans of Carroll or Kelly. Trojans-Ducks could be a white-knuckler, but it could just as easily spiral out of control in either direction. After all, Oregon's embarrassing loss at Boise State and its huge conquest of Cal were both lopsided, ( Boise State won by only 11, but the Broncos thoroughly whipped Oregon from start to finish), while USC's anticipated clash with Cal turned into an easy 30-3 romp for the Men of Troy. A game's hype doesn't guarantee a close contest; the smart money says this throwdown will be a photo finish, but in college football, the term "smart money" needs to be taken with several grains of salt.

It goes without saying that turnovers and special teams gaffes loom large in emotion-addled games such as this one, but if that category turns out to be a wash, what's likely to tip the scales in either direction on Saturday? The best place to look is the matchup between USC's inconsistent offensive line and Oregon's underappreciated defensive front. The skill people--especially the quarterbacks--will receive ample publicity heading into Trojans-Ducks, but the most intriguing game-within-the-game will likely pit USC's hogs against the down linemen of the Ducks. The Autzen Stadium atmosphere might make it hard for Barkley to focus at times, so it's of paramount importance for USC to run block, spring big plays from Allen Bradford, and set up play-action with Barkley for downfield home-run balls. It's equally essential, then, for Oregon to put Barkley in predictable passing situations, because if UO doesn't know what to expect on a given down, the Ducks' increasingly thin secondary could be vulnerable against a healthy pair of Trojan receivers, Damian Williams and Ronald Johnson. It all begins with the battle up front: If USC's offensive line can match preseason expectations--which haven't been met so far--the Trojans can quiet the Autzen crowd and force Masoli to keep up in a track meet. If, on the other hand, Oregon's defense once again sets a positive tone, USC's defensive liabilities--particularly at linebacker--should feed the Ducks' sense of confidence and give the home team a better-than-even chance at victory.

There's nothing left but to play the game. USC and Oregon: It could be a blowout, it could be close, but regardless of the final score, the winner stands on top of the Pac-10 conference. The California Kings will try to maintain their seat of authority; the amply-equipped upstarts from the Northwest will try to pull off a coup. Let the struggle for West Coast power commence, on a night when the phrase "trick or treat" will appropriately describe the postgame mood in each locker room.

By Matt Zemek
DFN Sports Staff Writer