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Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers Football Preview

The Oregon Ducks are one win away from advancing to the BCS National Championship Game. Standing in their way are the Beavers from Oregon State, a desperate adversary that wants to ruin the championship dreams being harbored in Eugene.

The Ducks appear to be an irresistible force at this point in time. Only the California Golden Bears slowed down coach Chip Kelly’s spread-option offense this year, and that 15-13 escape job for Oregon seems like more and more of an aberration with the passage of time. Oregon got back on the beam last Friday, motoring past Arizona in the second half en route to a 48-29 win that really wasn’t all that close. Sure, Oregon trailed by a 19-14 score at halftime, but the Ducks have buttered their bread by winning second halves decisively in 2010. The Ducks have been tied or almost tied in a number of games at the half, only to then blow the lid off a tired and worn-down opponent in the third and fourth quarters of play. Oregon’s offensive tempo is so ruthless and consistent that defenses quickly get tired against it, unless they’re able to force a three-and-out. As soon as the Ducks get one first down, they’re able to get three more plays in which they can snap the ball with 25 seconds still left on the play clock. This accumulation of rapid-fire repetitions is what takes legs away from defenses.

Moreover, Oregon’s pace prevents defenses from being able to substitute with the regularity they’d like. Kelly teaches the spread option better than any other coach in the country; his implementation of this system at Oregon after replacing former head coach Mike Bellotti has made a solid UO program into a juggernaut that’s now won back-to-back Pac-10 Conference championships after falling short against USC for most of the past decade. Oregon should have made the 2002 national championship game under Bellotti, but now, with a win at Oregon State, the Ducks will get a chance to play for the national title. This is truly an elite team that’s taking the field on Saturday at Reser Stadium in Corvallis.

If the Ducks are going to be denied, it’s going to take a very heroic effort from the homestanding Oregon State Beavers. This is a rivalry game, and it will be played in the Beavers’ back yard, so those factors certainly work in favor of head coach Mike Riley’s roster. If OSU quarterback Ryan Katz – equipped with a strong arm and a prototypical quarterback’s body – can max out and play his very best game of the year, the gap between these two teams will shrink considerably, even though the Beavers will not be able to call upon the services of star receiver James Rodgers, who missed the last two months of the season with an injury. If Katz can deliver the goods, OSU will smoke a very suspect Oregon secondary that will allow at least two to three big pass plays per game. Oregon State will have a chance to ring up big numbers against the Ducks’ defense. If they convert every red-zone possession into seven points, they have a chance.

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Oregon State just has no margin for error, and Katz – without Rodgers – has been lost for much of the season. The Ducks are simply too good, too fit, too durable, and too deep. This will very probably be a close game for two and a half quarters, but Oregon regularly pulls away late in the third quarter and makes a seemingly competitive contest turn into a rout. The challenge for Oregon State is not found in the ability to play 40 solid minutes. The Beavers must play 60 excellent minutes if they want to have any chance of producing an upset for the ages.

By Matt Zemek
DFN Sports Senior Staff Writer